4.1 Introduction

4.2 The Needs

4.3 Framework for Scenario Construction

4.4 The Techniques: Description and Critique

• General Circulation Models
• Nature of Models
• Model Performance
• Limitations of the Models
• Empirical Approach
• Semiempirical Approach
• Modeling Approach

4.5 Some Alpine Scenarios

• Description and Discussion
• A Paleoclimatic Analogue Scenario
• An Instrumental Analogue Scenario
• A Scenario from Extrapolation of Synoptical Trends
• Scenarios from Semiempirical Downscaling
• A Scenario from a High-Resolution GCM
• Scenarios from Regional Climate Models Nested in GCMs
• Intercomparison

4.6 Summary and Conclusion

Acknowledgements

References